It is hard to believe that January of 2017 has come and gone! And after watching the Supreme Court nomination announcement the other night, it is even more difficult to believe that Donald J. Trump is the President. This serves as a lesson to all of us of just how difficult the future is to predict. Just three months ago the prestigious New York Times gave a chance at Trump winning the election to be less than 15%. The consensus was wrong - dead wrong. While going with the consensus can be comforting, and some argue conservative, the odds are that you probably do not know what the odds are.
Yesterday, there was a story going around that a desperate day trader named “The YOLO Wolf” plagued by trading losses. The YOLO Wolf made one last bold bet that Apple Computer (AAPL) was going to report poor sales and profits for the quarter. This trader was not alone, as there were a lot of rumors and speculation that AAPL was not going hit their numbers. Supposedly, YOLO Wolf took what was left of his life savings and "shorted" AAPL, meaning that he was betting Apple stock would drop. Even with focused research and experience, YOLO Wolf was wrong. In the final reach for fame, YOLO Wolf also recorded what transpired on YouTube (warning – video contains vulgarities). This is a great example of what not to do! There is just no way to know what the future holds. With that in mind, here is how the various asset classes have started off the year.
Care to make any bets?
Blue Ocean Portfolios develops thoughtful allocation policies for investors of all types and implements these policies using low cost, no load index funds. While no approach is ever perfect, the truth is that they only thing that you can predict are the fees that you will incur.
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